Sometimes the right move is no move. Here's how to know — in dollars.
Before any conversation about selling, a written comparison of what staying costs you each year against what going would net you and cost you. Free, prepared by hand, and just as likely to say “not yet” as “now.”
Figures verified October 5, 2026 · §121, Prop 19 and the net-sheet mechanics on this page are cross-checked against the IRS, the Board of Equalization and the county recorders.
The most expensive decision is the one that drifts.
Most longtime homeowners I meet aren't deciding whether to sell. They're deciding whether to think about selling, and the thinking stalls because nobody has put the two paths next to each other with real numbers. So the house gets another five years, the deferred roof gets another five years, and a decision that should have been made on purpose gets made by a fall, a diagnosis, or a death.
A CFO's instinct is to put both columns on one page. That is all this is. It is not a listing presentation, and there is no obligation at the end of it. It usually takes one conversation and a few documents you already have.
If the honest answer is “stay five more years,” you'll hear it from me first.
| Line | Stay | Go |
|---|---|---|
| Property tax | At today's assessed value | On the next home after a Prop 19 base transfer, if you qualify — or at full market value if you don't |
| The house itself | Insurance, utilities, upkeep, and the deferred projects it actually needs | HOA or community fees, insurance, utilities on the new place |
| Help and access | In-home help you pay for; modifications that let you stay comfortably | What the new place provides, and what it charges for it |
| One-time | Nothing now — but the deferred list doesn't shrink | Net proceeds after commission, transfer tax and capital gains; purchase costs on the next home; moving |
| Timing rules | §121's two-of-five-year use test, the two-year window for a surviving spouse, Prop 19's two-year replacement window and value thresholds — each one flagged with the date it would change the answer | |
Where you have the figure, we use yours. Where you don't, the assumption is written down and labeled as one.
The dates that matter more than the market
The capital-gains exclusion hasn't moved since 1997. Your house has.
Internal Revenue Code §121 excludes up to $250,000 of gain if you file single, $500,000 if married filing jointly — and those figures are not indexed to inflation. On a home bought decades ago, the exclusion covers a fraction of the gain. Improvements you've made add to your basis and pull the exposed number down, which is why the receipts matter before you list. The net proceeds calculator runs the real bracket stacking.
If you're 55+, Prop 19 lets you take your tax base with you — in the right order.
Sell first and buy within two years, and a replacement worth up to 105% of the original's value (110% in the second year) carries your old base; only the excess is added. Buy first and the threshold drops to 100%, and you pay full market-value tax until the sale with no refund. Sequencing is the whole game.
If you move into care, the exclusion gets easier, not harder.
Under §121(d)(7), a homeowner who becomes physically or mentally incapable of self-care and moves to a licensed facility needs to have owned and used the home for only one year of the last five to keep the full exclusion. Time in the facility counts as use. Families often sell in a hurry without knowing this.
Three fields, one conversation, one page of numbers back.
I'll ask for your current property-tax bill, a rough sense of what the house needs, and where you'd go if you went. What you get back is the two columns above filled in for your situation, with every assumption labeled and every timing rule flagged.
It's free, it's by hand, and it's just as useful if you take it to another agent. Or call: 408-375-1223.
Stay-or-Go FAQ
What is a Stay-or-Go analysis?
A written, side-by-side comparison of what it costs you to keep living in your current home each year against what you would net by selling it and what the next place would cost to buy and hold — including the Prop 19 property-tax base you would carry with you. It is prepared by Lance Hulsey at no charge and is meant to settle the question before any listing conversation starts.
Who is it for?
Homeowners 55 and older in Santa Clara or Santa Cruz County who have owned their home for many years and are weighing whether to stay, downsize, move closer to family, or move into a retirement community — and the adult children helping them think it through.
What goes into the 'stay' column?
Your current property tax at its existing assessed value, insurance, utilities, routine maintenance and the deferred projects the house actually needs, any help you pay for in the home, and the cost of modifications that would let you stay comfortably. Where you have the figures, we use yours; where you don't, the assumption is labeled.
What goes into the 'go' column?
Your estimated net proceeds after commission, transfer taxes and capital gains after the §121 exclusion; what the replacement home or community would cost; the property tax on it after a Prop 19 base-year-value transfer where you qualify; and the recurring cost of the new place, including HOA or community fees.
Does the analysis tell me to sell?
No. It tells you what each path costs. Often the answer is that staying for several more years is sound, and Lance says so. Capital gains, the §121 exclusion and Prop 19 all have timing rules, so the analysis also flags any date that would change the math if you waited.
Is this tax or legal advice?
No. Lance Hulsey is a California real estate broker, not a CPA or an attorney. The analysis gives you organized numbers to take to your own advisors; it does not replace them.